User blog:TheWickedWizardOfOz/National Finals

So, with the last two hanchan of the semifinals coming up, I thought it'd be time to share my thoughts and predictions for the Finals.

Although the placement of the schools has stayed the same throughout the Side-B semifinals, there's no doubt in my mind that Saki will come up with a second place (MAYBE EVEN FIRST???) finish. And, it's highly unlikely for Himematsu and Uzusan to make it to the finals, so that means that the finalists will be Shiraitodai, Achiga, Kiyosumi, and Rinkai: Two newcomers and two veterans. Wow just like all of Kiyosumi's (important) match-ups thus far.

Wait I also just wanna say that I think that the same thing that happened in the quarterfinals will happen again to Suehara in the semifinals. Sawaya has been noted (by Chikako) to win after someone else declares riichi (although that might just be bad play by Chikako, I think it's an actual hint to Sawaya's actual play-style), and so Suehara will likely fall to this trap, as I doubt Saki or Nelly will declare riichi without something else in mind.

BUT ANYWAYS.

Something I actually want to see is EvERY SINGLE HAND IN THESE 10 HANCHAN. It'll probably take Ritz like 3 or 4 years if she actually does (unless she consistently gets published bimonthy and manages to get a lot going along with commentators/backstory or more pages each chapter etc). BUT I DON'T CARE. I want to see EXACTLY what happens in these 10 hanchan. There haven't been many matches where BOTH hanchans were fully shown to us.

For the Vanguard match, it's gonna be Miyanaga Teru, Kuro, Yuuki, and Tsujigaito. Teru will likely win A LOT of points. Probably a bit more than she did in the semifinals, espcially if she plans on pulling out a chuurenpuuto. Furthermore, Kirame and Toki were instrumental in keeping Teru's points down. While Kuro does prevent Teru from getting dora, I'm not sure if Yuuki and Tsujigaito are going to be able to pull off the same thing as Kirame and Toki (because neither of them can see the future; though they both do seem to have some control over the flow of the game). Tsujigaito might be able to pull off some co-operative play, but it'll be minimal compared to the Side-A semifinal. At first, it'll seem like the point spread will be like Shiraitodai -> Kiyosumi -> Rinkai -> Achiga (due to Yuuki's East winnings), but it'll probably wind up with Rinkai in second and a close point difference between Achiga and Kiyosumi for third (or maybe Kuro will win causing Kiyosumi to fall behind by a lot). It's possible for Kuro to overtake Tsujigaito for second, but I think it's unlikely, since no one at Achiga could beat Arakawa Kei and Tsujigaito came third to her.

In the Sergant's match, it's gonna be Hirose Sumire, Yuu, Mako, and Hao Huiyu. This match will is a toss-up between Mako and Sumire losing, for me. Because Hao Huiyu and Yuu both play completely unconventional styles, it'll be hard for both Sumire and Mako to adapt to it. However, because Sumire plays in a very conventional manner, I think that Mako can stop her like she did Aislinn. Conversely, Sumire's play is very weird to normal players, so Mako might have a hard time (and she set out to improve herself so that's something to consider as well). Shiraitodai will hold onto the lead, with minor point loss comparatively to their point total. Between Yuu and Hao, I think Yuu will outplay Hao, even if indirectly. Rinkai will probably keep second place, but depending on the point difference in the Vanguard's match, Achiga might take second. Kiyosumi will try to keep up for sure, but Mako might end up increasing their deficeit (or maybe she can pull closer to the other schools). But most likely Kiyosumi will be last at this point.

For the Lieutenant's match, Takami is largely outclassed; she's gonna lose A LOT of points. Unless she's the last dealer for one of the hanchan, and even then it might be hard for her to pull off a couple of Yakuman hands. Between Hisa, Ako, and Choe, Hisa will have the largest point gain for Kiyosumi, followed by Choe (depending on when she starts singing she might lose out to Hisa or Ako) and then Ako. The points will kinda come closer together at this point, with Shiraitodai's lead sinking quite a bit, Kiyosumi taking second, Rinkai in third and Achiga falling behind a bit. Even though Ako can definitely defeat Takami even when Sera is at the table, it's a lot different with Hisa and Choe there. Although Hisa's play-style inheirently counters Choe, Choe still has massive control of the flow and can play very quickly since some of her hand is already set-up for her. Plus, Hisa will be winning on whomever she can, to get Kiyosumi as close to first as possible. Ako will have to kick it into high gear from the start and have very nice starting hands if she even wants a minimal point loss. With everyone trying to avoid dealer renchan, their point gains will be smaller too (unless Hisa wants to try her luck against Takami's last hand).

The Vice-Captain's match is hard to say for me. I think Matano will lose as well, Nodoka and Megan are both players who prioritise speed, so Matano's ability will be a huge hindrance for her in this match as it's dependant on her opponent's discards. It's hard to say how Arata is going to play this time around. If her feelings were concentrated towards the semifinals, she might not be able to play as fantastically in the finals. I expect Megan will use up her remaining darkness hands as well (though here Matano might be able to outplay Megan...). And if I'm right, Nodoka might be a better player when using her left-hand, so we'll see how that goes. I was actually expecting Nodoka to have a negative point total for the Finals, not the Semifinals, so we'll see how that goes. For sure Shiraitodai will drop to second or even lower, Rinkai will probably take the lead, followed by Kiyosumi then Achiga or maybe the other way around, I'm not sure.

Oh yes, the all first-year Captain's match, Awai, Shizuno, Saki, and Nelly. I think Saki will take the win, maybe a last hand comeback? I doubt she'll dominate the whole game. This one is hard to say because we haven't seen what Nelly can do, and if she's as good as she's been portrayed to be so far, it'll be a very close match. Awai might start out with her Double Riichi, but Saki can easily counter that if she can call a kan early enough in the match. I don't think Shizu will begin showing her talents until the last hand of the first half or until the second half. Due to the manga nature of this tournament, Kiyosumi will take first, Shiraitodai second, Rinkai third, and Achiga fourth. Maybe Achiga and Rinkai will switch, but I don't think that Achiga will make it first or second. With Awai aware of Shizu's ability, I don't think she'll try her kan-ura attack if she can't get a Double Riichi. Saki might have a hard time too. If Shizu could shut down Amae Koromo after just three Haitei's, three hands might be all she needs. However, Shizu couldn't completely shut down Himeko and Shirozu while she was keeping Awai at bay, so something like that might happen again. Can she increase the amount of pressure she puts on one player? Or is it uniform? And if it's uniform, that must make it easier for even stronger players to break through (although harder in general). But if she puts it on one player, then the other two have a larger opening.

Another interesting note is that every match besides the Captain's match has at least one player of every high school year.

What do you think? Do you think Kiyosumi will take the win? Will Shiraitodai protect their throne? Or will Rinkai prove that they're number one? Or maybe even that Achiga can prove they've got what it takes to stand will the tallest and topple them?